El Departamento de Administración de la Facultad de Economía y Negocios de la Universidad de Chile, tienen el agrado de invitarle al Seminario Académico: The Riskiness of Credit Origins and Downside Risks to Economic Activity.
Autor: Claudio Raddatz Kiefer, Ph.D. in Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, EEUU. Profesor titular del Departamento de Administración FEN Uchile.
Abstract:
We construct a country-level indicator capturing the extent to which aggregate bank credit growth originates from banks with a relatively riskier profile, which we label the Riskiness of Credit Origins (RCO). Using bank-level data from 42 countries over more than two decades, we document that RCO variations over time are a feature of the credit cycle. RCO also robustly and significantly predicts downside risks to GDP growth even after controlling for aggregate bank credit growth and financial conditions, among other determinants. We explore how RCO’s predictive power relates to an asset quality channel and a banking sector resilience channel. Our findings underscore the importance of bank heterogeneity for theories of the credit cycle and financial stability policy.
